The Inevitable Azeri-Iranian War
The case for the inevitability of war, and second, how the war will develop.
The United States of America is at war with Iran. Whether or not pundits or the military want to call it a war doesn’t matter; the harsh reality is that we are at war. Given that, we must consider what the US military will do to defeat Iran; this does not mean that victory is attainable or even desirable, simply that they have been tasked to do a job, even if it’s politically impossible, and thereby make military recommendations to America’s political leadership to achieve a victory.
With the failure of the air campaign to achieve immediate victory, and with a country like Iran, there are few options for measurable military success; in fact, only one option remains for a potential ‘non-regime change regime change’. Here then, is how the US-Iran War will develop in the coming weeks and months.
The Case for the Inevitability of War between Azerbaijan and Iran
Let’s start with a look at Iran’s geography.
To the south, the Persian Gulf forms a formidable sea barrier that even if overcome, leads directly to the hell that is the Western Zagros Mountains. As thousand-year old war tomes will tell you, you never want to be found fighting uphill. In the times before artillery and machine guns, a group of braced spearmen on a hill can resist whatever comes up the hill by sheer dint of gravity; if you want to try this yourself, go stand on a hill with a friend. Alternate the person who is standing up above and who is standing below, and have the person below try to shove the person above. Spoilers: the person below won’t get very far at all.
In the times since artillery and machine guns were invented, the advantage for the person on the elevated position became even more pronounced. Now, armies on elevated positions could eliminate attackers far at range, with the elevation providing perfect sightlines for the army’s guns. And in the days of radar, satellites, drones, and missiles, attacking an elevated position is nigh-impossible.
Don’t take my word for it. One of the main reasons why Russia has yet to take the Donbass despite 4 years of war is that despite the fact that Ukraine is very flat, the Donbass is the hilliest part of the eastern country and therefore the worst terrain to fight in, to say nothing of the urban cities that exist in that part of the country.
Except the mountains of Iran are far, far taller than the gentle slopes of East Ukraine; in the Zagros, the average elevation is between 2,500-3,000 meters. During the 1980s war, Saddam didn’t even try to go up the mountains; he kept his army within the Khuzestan flatlands (west of Zagros Mountains), not that he had much choice, considering the pathetic state of his armed forces.
The same fate awaits any enemy army invading Iran from the east or from the west. To the east are inhospitable deserts and the inevitable run-into the endless mountain ranges, to say nothing of the fact that Pakistan or Taliban-run Afghanistan would never allow US forces to stage a ground invasion in either. To the west, no desert, just an immediate confrontation with mountains as high as 9,000 feet. The US Army may be filled with ‘warfighters’ and devoid of ‘Woke’, but even they would have a hard time charging up a row of 50 different Mount Shastas (14,000 feet) before reaching the objective (Tehran).
So, it is hopeless and even pointless for America to try invading Iran, right? Well, that would be right, if not for Iran’s immediate northern border.
We needn’t concern ourselves with the eastern part of this; Turkmenistan and the other -Stans are not aligned with the US and do not have the capacity to engage in a hostile war. Azerbaijan though, is. Out of all of Iran’s neighbors, Azerbaijan is unique in that not only does it share an enclosed naval sea border with Iran (the Caspian Sea), but Azerbaijan’s borderlands with Iran also lead to a narrow strip of green invadable flatlands. In addition, Azerbaijan just fought two successful wars against Armenia (mainly, with Turkish/US backing), so it has the ability to fight offensive war.
Let’s not forget how close the US and the EU are to Azerbaijan, either.
To say nothing of the fact that Azerbaijan ethnically cleansed huge swaths of Armenia of ethnic Armenians and that the US and the EU greenlit this because they were so thirsty for Azeri oil after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. Azerbaijan therefore is nothing more than Northern Israel, the Northern Flank of America’s Operation Epstein’s Fury.
And, if you are in the US military (woe to you), then really, do you have any other option? The Iranian state is not collapsing. Hormuz remains closed. US bases in the Middle East are turning into depopulated craters. Other than craven surrender (which would get you immediately fired from your job in the Pentagon), what other option would YOU have to suggest to the “warfighters” on how to un-fuck this situation? Other than using unlimited nuclear warheads on Iran, Russia, and China (and thereby destroying America), this is it.
The Shape Of Things To Come
1It will begin with an air campaign. With the US and Israel providing strategic bombing and close air support, the Azeri air force will join in the fray with their powerful Turkish (Bayraktar TB2) and Israeli (Harop, Orbiter) drones. These combined will wreak havoc on Iranian positions in the north of the country, around the Caspian sea shore. A few hours into this air campaign, the ground invasion will then commence.
Spearheaded by Azeri soldiers, US special forces, and even some US ground forces (Marines, etc.), the goal is to overwhelm, isolate, and destroy enemy positions as quickly as possible, taking and holding the immediate objective before moving right on to the next one. The goal is speed; if tactical victory is not achieved within ~3 days (seizing the coast), the whole operation is a bust.
The ground attack will commence from the Astara region within Azerbaijan, and seek to secure the positions the air campaign obliterated. At the same time, helicopters and rapid moving naval vessels (speedboats) will launch a naval attack from Baku, the goal being to seize as much territory behind Iranian positions as possible.
To put this in the most basic military terms as possible, here is how the Azeris and Americans are planning to wage this war:
First, Azeri troops engage with (weakened by airstrike) Iranian soldiers.
Next, Azeri troops land from the Caspian Sea behind Iranian positions.
Lastly, the Azeri troops that land behind the Iranian troops encircle, and with help from the troops in the front, eliminate the Iranian positions.
This can be repeated up the entire Caspian Sea coastal area that Iran occupies, with Azeri ground forces engaging Iranian forces on flat, open terrain, and American/Azeri forces landing from behind and delivering the killing blow. As soon as the Iranian frontline collapses, Azeri forces will move up to the next line of engagement, with another aerial/naval insertion already queued up for when that happens.
If everything goes according to the Pentagon’s and Azerbaijan’s plans, this is what the war should look like on D+7:
From there, it will be a hard, long fight up the Alborz mountains to reach Tehran, but victory would be far closer in sight than it would’ve been prior.
Except it won’t go like that. Not at all.
The ACTUAL Shape Of Things To Come
Iranian missiles and drones, with help from Russian and Chinese intel, know-how, and industry will rain down on Azeri positions. US casualties will be high, in the thousands if not tens of thousands. Azerbaijan is also woefully outnumbered on the ground; Iran could hold a ten or even twenty to one manpower advantage in the actual field with Azerbaijan. The invasion will thus fail.
From there, who knows? Maybe Iran counterattacks. They should. I would. Maybe they march into Azerbaijan proper. Why wouldn’t they? With Azerbaijan’s (tiny) army broken, Iran will have the opportunity to knock out a declared enemy. That might draw Turkey into the fray, who would quickly march into Armenia, knock it out, and then engage directly with Iran.
But a Turkish intervention would risk a Russian one, in which case, it is basically World War 3; a nuclear war, and the end of humanity, at least we know it.
If you’re a military advisor to the United States, your options therefore are nuclear holocaust right now, or a (potential) nuclear holocaust tomorrow.
Let’s pray they choose the unlikely ‘never’2!
I don’t have access to classified intel. I don’t know anyone in any armed forces. I am however in possession of a map, my faculties, and basic military reality. Take that for what it’s worth.
The most likely outcome is US economic collapse and anti-war mutinies in the US Armed Forces as casualties mount; excluding the other most likely outcome of immediate US surrender and pull-out of the Middle East, that is what will happen.