The War Aims of Israel, Iran, and the United States
Discerning what each side wants
Essential Background
Iran has a human history stretching back hundreds of thousands of years. It has seen tribes and kingdoms and horselords rise and fall all throughout that vast time. For at least the past few centuries, Iran has been ruled by a variety of homegrown dynasties and other rulers. There is, of course, far more to their story, and what happened prior to 1900 matters, but not necessarily for the context of the modern war which is the main subject of present concern. It is Iran's history specifically after 1900 that explains so much of their present struggles.
Suffice it to say that Iran by 1900 was weak, divided, economically and politically vulnerable, ripe for conquest and imperial domination. And that’s exactly what happened at the great culmination of western european colonialism: with the epoch of the First World War, and the puppeting of the Iranian regime under Western suzerainty.
As Russia and Great Britain fought alongside one another during WW1, the newfound allies devised a way to end their internal and internecine ‘Great Game’. It was of course less a game than an intense series of struggles and wars, whereby Russia struggled to break into the Indian Ocean from the North and the British, keen to keep their Indian holdings (the only part of their empire that actually made them a global superpower) safe, resisted from the South. It was from this that the great steppe Turkmen empires were subjugated under Russia rule, that the Afghan kingdom was brought under the British fold. Iran, being smack-dab in the middle of the region, was not alone in these imperial machinations, with Iran partitioned into a Russian and British sphere of influence.
When Russia in 1917 fell into revolution and then civil war in 1918 though, the British were left the entire cake all to themselves. While the Soviets did attempt to resist, they were far too preoccupied to divert many resources to create an Iranian Soviet regime. So the British ousted the Qajar monarchy and through a collaborationist general named Reza Khan, established a new puppet regime under the Pahlavi dynasty in 1921. Up until 1979, Pahlavi Iran would remain a firm puppet UK (until 1945) then a US (until 1979) one. Of course, this period wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows.
Iran was invaded again in 1941, with the comprador Reza now-Shah replaced by his far weaker son, with the heavy lifting done this time by the British and the Soviets, who both had desires to keep both the Suez and India under British control and away from German and Italian hands. Directly to the North, in the Soviet Union, Hitler had invaded and was threatening the capture of the Caucasus oil fields. From there, it would be a clean sweep down from the North to all the Middle East: Iraq, Iran, India, Egypt, it was all within grasp. Hitler of course, never got close to Baku or even Astrakhan, making this entire effort moot. Still, it frightened the Allies enough to put the entire country under joint Soviet and British occupation. As the war ended, independent control was restored to Iran, though it was clear they would remain a Western puppet under the UK, and then soon thereafter, under the Americans.
During the Cold War up until 1979, Iran had been America’s number one friend, perhaps their greatest friend. The geography makes it plain: to keep the Saudi oil fields safe from Soviet incursion, to encircle Soviet allies in the region (Syria and Iraq) with Iran in the East and Iraq in the West, a friendly Iran was absolutely necessary. Under the containment theory, this kept communism bottled up and unable to flourish, and crucially prevented the Soviets from having a warm water Indian Ocean port.
When in the mid 70s Afghanistan appeared to be shifting into the Soviet sphere of influence (a confirmed fact by 1978), it was Iranian dollars, US guns, and Pakistani bases that trained the future Mujahideen that would be used first to fight the Soviets, then Americans, then the whole world. Iran was thus key to US defenses against the Soviet bear.
Then the Islamic Revolution happened. Weakened by decades of corruption, human rights abuses, nationalist antipathy towards being ruled by a western puppet, and the rise of religious fundamentalism (largely fed by Saudi money but also by long-extant indigenous forces), the puppet Pahlavis were driven out of power and replaced with a fully independent (as in, against both Soviet and Western domination) Islamic Republic.
This was a declaration of independence and war, one in effect building up since 1941 but also since 1915 (and before), against both the Soviet and Western powers. The USSR, dogged in their fight against US-armed Afghani militias, could do little against the rise of the Iranian regime and indeed, by the time the 80s were over, the Soviet Union itself was about to collapse. The successor state, Russia, would find itself so far removed from Iran (separated by newly independent Caucasian states and Central Asians ones) that they largely have acquiesced to just peaceful trading relations ever since.
America reacted far differently. As the overlord of Iran, they would suffer the brunt of the Iranian revolution. Iran seized both US diplomats and economic assets. This in turn led to a ruinous war with Iraq, one instigated and directed by the United States. This proxy war against Iran would end in 1988, but the fighting would not. Instead, the front became broader and deeper.
As America’s other best friend in the world, Israel stood uniquely poised to assist America in bombing and combatting Iranian influence, which they loyally did for decades. Iran of course responded, funding Palestinian, Lebanese, Syrian, Jordanian, and more, resistance against Israel, leading to the various wars and genocides Israel has waged since 1979.
Now in 2025, the war turns to a new phase. This phase was supposed to have begun in 2007, with a two-pronged attack from Iraq and Afghanistan led by US forces. However, with Iraq a prolonged quagmire and with US domestic politics no longer in favor of foreign adventurism after the Iraq debacle, the final conflict was delayed until a more suitable time, a time which over time became some indefinite day in the future. Distracted by Russia and then China, it seemed unlikely America would ever return to the Middle East in full force for another invasion.
After all, it doesn’t make any deep strategic sense. This fact was recognized by Obama’s JCPOA nuclear deal. Successfully doing a regime change in Iran would be too costly and unpopular, and that while Iran may be a detriment to US strategic interests in the region, they are at most a nuisance to Israel, and definitely not an existential threat to either the US or Israel. Russia is no longer in the region either, removing that long-standing impetus for engagement. Yes, Iran could take out Saudi oil but they need good relations with China and others, something that an assault on Saudi oil would ruin and wreck. And the atom bomb? Iran's never really needed it or wanted it. The program exists to be dismantled, like South Africa's, something they’re only making because they feel existentially threatened by the US. That was the same calculus North Korea made, only Iran definitely does not want to be North Korea, shut out of global financial markets.
So without a reason, an escalation now makes little sense. Yet: when life gives you imperialist lemons, you make imperialist lemonade. October 7 and America’s subsequent above-and-beyond blank check allowed Israel to diminish or take out all of Iran’s regional allies in Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, et al. The Islamic Republic has never been more isolated, discounting only the very early days of the Revolution. It is from this sense that we can parse the questions of why and why now. The answers to both are simple enough: Israeli and American victories post October 7 gave them a sense of hubris strong enough to want to use military power to finally take care of unfinished business against a longtime enemy.
More importantly, we can also begin to detect a theory of victory for each side. For while Israel is fully an American puppet, they do have different state and personal reasons for war, even if their visions for the day after are the same. We can also, from understanding the war aims of both the aggressors, begin to understand what Iran’s war aims are. Let’s dive in.
Israel’s War Aims
You cannot understand Israel’s war aims without understanding their government. For while this war is brutal and genocidal in scope and nature, it is also intensely personal. There is a direct through line from the Netanyahus accepting bribes in the form of endless wine and similar gifts to 2000 pound bombs being dropped on babies. To keep himself and his wife out of jail: Benjamin Netanyahu must remain in power. It is that simple. To do so, Israel must be at war. It can never not be at war, for the far right coalition that Netanyahu relies upon to stay in power are some of the most bloodthirsty fascists the world has ever seen, in direct competition with Hitler himself. Thus, the genocide in Gaza, in the West Bank, in Lebanon, in Syria, and now in Iran.
The more wars Israel is in, the more impossible their strategic position becomes, the better Netanyahu’s chances for staying out of prison are. It could be the case that Israel never signs a peace settlement with any nation or peoples ever again, for to do so would invite an election (something that is also never going to happen again), defeat, and an inevitable jail sentence. And: his far right allies know this, and thus they own him. For it is not really Netanyahu’s government, not anymore. It hasn’t been for a long time. It is Ben Gvir’s and Smotrich’s government. It is they who make policy and decisions, for it is by their grace alone that Netanyahu remains a free man.
But a theory of victory must be translated into actual military and war policy. The state must have a reason for doing this, must have a series of goals, beyond the personal. Even if Netanyahu and his masters have no goals beyond “kill”, the military leadership must still ponder and consider how exactly to wage such a war, and from that, we can discern what their vision of victory would be.
It is plain from rhetoric and past examples (in Gaza, Lebanon, Libya, Syria, and Iraq) what Israel intends to want Iran to go through. They want total destabilization. They want banks to be closed and out of money. They want streets to be dirty and dangerous to walk through. The water, if it runs, should be filthy and unhygienic. Schools and hospitals should be craters, with employees of both nothing but charred bones. They want, in lieu of a united Iranian government, a hundred thousand little Islamic militias, forever warring against each other and not Israel. They want an anti-state, a failed state, a state so far from recognition that it simply ceases to exist; where Iran is on the map today should be replaced by a single word: “Anarchy”.
Of course this entails the denuclearization of Iran. But that is just the beginning. If you can get the nukes you can also get the army. If Iran is ever to be reunited, if the Anarchy does end, it will be turned into an Israeli client state like Syria, with its armed forces either subjugated under western control or totally abolished. This would mean, if Iran ever crawls back from the Anarchy, that they could never again reclaim full sovereignty. It would be a return to the epoch of 1945-1979 but far worse. And yes, that may even include the reintroduction of the Shah, despite how many in Iran dislike the dynasty. After all, 1945-1979 were “the good old days” and the Shah ran the show then, so maybe he ought to run the show again, or so the logic in the IDF goes.
Thus Israeli war aims are made plain: to wage perpetual war, to keep their leadership in power, to render Iran an unsovereign puppet state of the West once again.
The American War Aims
America too has personal aims, but theirs are far more straightforward: Donald Trump needs a W. He needs a win! He has not had one his entire second term in office. The economy is sinking, the tariffs are a massacre, DOGE was a disaster, people are turning on him on his once-strongest issue immigration; it’s a mess! Iran to him seems like an easy issue: we go in, we bomb some things, we kill some people, we declare victory. The only reason he hasn’t gone in (as of this writing) is because some part of him knows that this war has the potential to spiral and drag him and his presidency down for good.
As for the US establishment, they also need a W. Ukraine is very clearly shaping up to be a major loss for the NATO alliance, and it is extremely unlikely that a war against China would go in America’s favor. If the US doesn’t prove the efficacy of their weapon platforms, that’s a large chunk of the US economy knocked out and made irrelevant. They need to show, especially after the disaster in fighting against Yemen, that the US army can still win at least tactical victories. For if they don’t, it’s the end of empire, at least in their eyes (and, they think wrongly that it is something can be stopped—spoilers! It can’t).
We also need to keep in mind revenge as a motivating factor. 1979 was deeply, immensely humiliating for the US establishment. While all those involved at the leadership level are long since retired or dead, the institutional history still remains. There are US diplomats and generals who were raised from birth to hate Iran for what the Islamic Republic did to American prestige. And it is hatred: every Iranian dead or suffering is but a small price Iran has yet to pay in full. And it’s unlikely it could ever be fully repaid.
And so, the US establishment agrees with the Israeli establishment: yes, we will denuclearize Iran, but we will also destabilize and demilitarize and ultimately de-sovereignitize the nation. It will never be a sovereign nation again, enjoying as much recognition and authority as the petainist Palestinian Authority.
The Iranian War Aims
Survive. That’s it. This war is about the survival of the Iranian people and state, of their right to exist, period. It’s not just a question of whether or not Iran should have an Islamic Republic or a democracy or a monarchy but deeper than that. This war raises the fundamental question: is there such a thing as an Iran? An Iranian language, an Iranian culture, an Iranian history? That is what this war threatens, to answer that no, just like the Palestinians in Palestine: there’s no such thing. There are Americans and their friends (the Israelis and the Arabs, and sometimes some minorities like Kurds or Azeris), and no one else in the region.
How Iran survives is simple too: to fight on, to never surrender, not until Israeli and American aggression ends. It was the same war aim foisted upon Hamas after October 7: to resist, to fight, to survive, at least one more day, in the hopes that tomorrow will bring peace.
That day may never come. For many peoples of the world sometimes there is no justice. Just an avalanche of death and misery and genocide. Not everyone gets a happy ending, and sometimes, some peoples are just wiped out. Iran thus has no choice but to resist. Surrender is national suicide, a self-genocide.
Can they do it? Can they survive?
If I could hazard a guess I would say yes. Vietnam and the German invasion of the USSR to me are the two plainest, more recent examples of imperial powers biting off far more than they could possibly hope to chew. That is Iran today, no longer the weakling of 1900, the pushover of 1921, the easily-occupied wreck of 1941. They are now a nation of 90 million, two-thirds of whom are ethnic Iranian, shielded from invasion on all sides with a web and cocoon of mountains. They are a rich nation, richer than Czechia and nearly as wealthy as Vietnam, ranking 36th in terms of nominal GDP. They possess one of the world’s largest armies, and by missile and drone force alone, certainly one of the most sophisticated ones.
Iran does have weaknesses, of course. There’s the corruption, the sanctions, the unpopularity of the religious leadership in the big cities—these are just some of the issues plaguing Iran. But since the question of this war is so fundamentally about survival, these issues will take a backseat to the far more immediate, unifying, and present threat of a joint-US/Israeli invasion.
They will fight because they must. They will win because the numbers favor them, but more so because failure is not an option. There can never be an Iranian Authority, assisting new Israeli settlements get set up in Tehran. Every Iranian would rather die than see that happen, and that nationalistic conviction will be enough to see them through this darkest hour.
I hope, for all our sakes, it is.